By Abiodun JIMOH
Nigeria’s private sector sustained its growth trajectory in April 2025 despite intensifying structural challenges, according to the latest NESG-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM). The index showed a notable rise in current business sentiment, with the Current Business Index climbing to +12.29 from +6.58 in March, reflecting improving business conditions and increased activity across sectors.
Sub-sectoral data showed positive outcomes across all sectors tracked, with Trade and Non-manufacturing recording the highest optimism at +25.12 and +23.59, respectively. Manufacturing (+8.78), Agriculture (+7.02), and Services (+6.54) also posted improvements. Trade’s sharp rise from just +0.51 in March was attributed to festive-driven consumer spending on food, clothing, and household goods.
Yet, while confidence rose, business operators faced deepening hurdles. The cost of doing business increased, with the index moving to +51.79 in April from +48.44 the previous month. Investment appetite slumped to -15.00, and price levels weakened further to -16.62, reflecting softer margins and tighter liquidity conditions.
Persistent power supply issues, escalating commercial rent, limited financing options, foreign exchange shortages, and ambiguous economic policies continue to weigh heavily on business expansion. High property lease costs remained a critical constraint for the second straight month.
Commenting on the results, Stanbic IBTC noted that current conditions had improved to their highest levels since the BCM’s inception seven months ago. The recovery in agriculture was credited to off-season harvests in northern Nigeria, while trade benefited significantly from April festivities. Overall, gains were recorded in production, demand, profitability, and employment levels, although cost and investment challenges lingered.
Looking ahead, businesses remain cautiously optimistic for the next quarter, especially in the trade sector. However, expectations are tempered by anticipated currency depreciation and a slight uptick in inflation. Nonetheless, interest rates are expected to moderate over the year, supporting economic growth.
Stanbic IBTC and NESG project a real GDP growth rate of 3.5% in 2025, marginally up from 3.4% in 2024.
Disclaimer: The NESG-Stanbic IBTC BCM is not a substitute for official statistics but serves as a supplementary indicator. The information provided is for informational purposes and not investment advice.
