Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 came under the spotlight on Tuesday as Financial Journalists, economists and stakeholders gathered at the FICAN Secretariat for the Monthly Forum of the annual Economic Review and Outlook (2025/26), where fresh projections and policy challenges were discussed against the backdrop of mounting fiscal pressures.
Speaking at the forum, Mr. Adetilewa Adebajo, Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, presented the firm’s 2026 Outlook, which projects Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at about 5 percent.
He said the projection is anchored on expectations of easing inflation into single digits, a moderation in monetary policy with the benchmark rate projected at 20 percent, and relative stability in the foreign exchange market, with the naira expected to trade between ₦1,400 and ₦1,500 to the US dollar.
Mr. Adebajo noted that the projections reflect an economy beginning to stabilise after nearly three years of difficult reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange adjustments. However, he warned that Nigeria has reached a critical point where stabilisation must give way to productivity-led expansion if the benefits of reform are to reach ordinary citizens.
According to him, the economy needs to grow at between 8 and 10 percent annually to significantly improve livelihoods and lift more than 140 million Nigerians out of multidimensional poverty.
Without a decisive shift toward higher growth, he cautioned that recent reforms risk delivering limited social and economic impact.
While outlining the growth outlook, CFG Advisory raised strong concerns about fiscal sustainability.
Mr. Adebajo disclosed that Nigeria’s cumulative budget deficit over the past three years has exceeded ₦50 trillion, with the 2026 fiscal deficit estimated at ₦23.85 trillion. He described fiscal discipline as the country’s most pressing economic challenge.
Of particular concern, he said, is the rising cost of debt servicing. Debt service obligations in the 2026 budget are projected at ₦15.2 trillion, exceeding the combined allocation of ₦14.97 trillion for defence, security, education and health.
He warned that this imbalance poses a serious risk to long-term development, as it limits government’s ability to fund capital projects and social investments.
Participants at the forum stressed the need for urgent policy actions to improve revenue generation, reduce waste and strengthen fiscal management, while converting reform gains into sustainable growth.
The session concluded with calls for disciplined budgeting, productivity-enhancing reforms and closer collaboration between the public and private sectors to steer the economy toward inclusive growth in the coming years.
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